Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS62 KGSP 240646 CCA
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire forecast area,
in effect from 18z Saturday through 18z Monday, for significant,
impactful accumulations of sleet and freezing rain across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia.

Minor, mainly increased adjustments to the storm total ice forecast.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall/minor flooding is now forecast
for the mountains of SC, northeast GA, and southwest NC Sunday into
Sunday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major ice storm is expected tonight through Sunday evening
across the forecast area, with an Ice Storm Warning remaining in
effect for the entire CWA. Impacts will be crippling across at
least a part of the forecast area, especially where ice accretion
approaches or exceeds 0.75." Widespread power outages and extremely
difficult to impossible travel conditions are expected to linger
through at least the early part of the work week.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night into
Tuesday morning, which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken.
3. A reinforcing cold front is expected later next week with
another chance for dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night
and again Thursday night, which could result in hypothermia or
frostbite if precautions are not taken.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A major ice storm is expected tonight through Sunday
evening across the forecast area, with an Ice Storm Warning
remaining in effect for the entire CWA. Impacts will be crippling
across at least a part of the forecast area, especially where ice
accretion approaches or exceeds 0.75." Widespread power outages and
extremely difficult to impossible travel conditions are expected
to linger through at least the early part of the work week.

The latest surface analysis reveals the center of sprawling arctic
high pressure over the upper Miss Valley early this morning,
with associated cold/dry ridge axis extending across the central
Appalachians and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surface pressure
pattern is responding with developing cold air damming east of the
Blue Ridge, which will continue to steadily intensify, reaching
maturity tonight as the center of the parent high settles into a
most favorable position over New England. Meanwhile, the broad
baroclinic zone covering much of the southeast quadrant of the
country will remain activated in response to large scale central
Conus height falls within initially split flow regime. Moisture and
forcing will unzip along the baroclinic zone into our forecast
area...beginning across the mountains this afternoon...and
overspreading the remainder of the CWA this evening, such that
categorical PoPs are forecast by midnight. As precipitation begins
to fall, the initially cold and very dry air mass will quickly cool
to below freezing due to wet bulb effects, enhancing the intensity
of CAD via diabatic effects. Therefore, while some locations could
see a brief period of rain at the outset, a quick transition to
snow (mountains) and snow/sleet (elsewhere) is likely. Low level
cold air will be maintained via advection of sub-freezing wet bulb
temps within the damming region...ensuring a protracted period of
wintry precip across virtually the entire forecast area.

Intense isentropic lift atop the cold dome combined with anomalously
moist air (PWATs of about 1"...in ~the 90th percentile of daily
climatology)...followed by strong/focused ascent along a frontal
boundary Sunday afternoon/evening will result in impressive storm
total liquid equivalent precip...with 2-3 inches forecast across
the mountains of southwest NC, SC, and northeast GA, and generally
1.5-2" elsewhere. Strong warm advection aloft will establish a
warm nose that will eventually (a) support a transition from sleet
to freezing rain from SW=>NE and (b) allow for the valleys of far
southwest NC...which will only be weakly affected by CAD...to warm
above freezing. The first main forecast challenge is timing the
transition to freezing rain. Forecast soundings become quite warm
(+5C or more) aloft rather quickly tonight, suggesting a quick
transition to FZRA. However, the cold layer at the surface is cold
and deep enough to perhaps allow for some refreezing of hydrometeors
before they hit the surface. However, this is far from a given...and
it lends modest confidence to our ice/sleet accum forecast going
forward. Nevertheless, most of the precip is expected to fall as
freezing rain such that much of the CWA is expected to see storm
total ice accums of 0.5-0.75." An exception on the higher end
(0.75-1.0" with locally higher amounts) is forecast along the Blue
Ridge escarpment...where the greatest alignment of persistent cold
air and higher liquid equivalent is forecast. These amounts are
expected to extend across the foothills of SC into the Greenville
metro area as well. Widespread downed trees/lines and power outages
are expected to be most concentrated in this area.

On the lower end, a gradual transition to rain is expected
along the southern and western periphery of the CWA during Sunday
afternoon due to the synoptic pattern quickly becoming unfavorable
for maintenance of cold air damming. This will occur as the upper
flow pattern becomes phased...with a long wave trough being carved
out over the eastern Conus and an upper ridge quickly building
off the East Coast, resulting in cessation of confluent flow and
allowing the weakening parent high to move far north into Quebec
and become detached from the inverted ridge CAD ridge. The wind
field responding to a developing coastal low will provide an
additional erosion mechanism. As such, ice totals across the SC
Lakelands and vicinity are expected to be in the 0.25-0.5" range,
while the valleys beneath the Smokies may struggle to reach 0.25."

In summation: forecast ice totals could be too low by 0.1-0.25"
if the transition from sleet->freezing rain occurs significantly
earlier than currently anticipated. Forecast totals could be too
high along and south of the I-85 corridor if CAD erosion is more
aggressive than currently forecast. Finally, locally excessive
rainfall will be possible across mountainous areas where the
transition to rain occurs Sunday afternoon...with the strong frontal
band (where an isolated elevated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out)
likely providing the tipping point to some minor runoff issues
developing late afternoon/evening.


Key message 2: Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night
into Tuesday morning, which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken.

Arctic high pressure builds in behind the departing coastal low
Monday into Tuesday. It will be windy in the high terrain Monday
(with gusts of 40-50 mph in the highest elevations), then some
weakening Monday night. There will be enough NW wind to produce
dangerous wind chills across nearly the entire forecast area. Temps
will stay below freezing across the mountains and barely get into
the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont Monday aftn before plummeting
into the single digits and to lower teens Monday night. Wind chills
are forecast to be in the 0 to -20 range in the mountains and mainly
single digits to low teens above zero in the Piedmont. This is well
within Cold Weather Advisory for most of the area, with Extreme
Cold Warning criteria above 3500 ft in the Northern Mountains.

Temps are still expected to rebound slightly through Wednesday,
but remain well below normal under a broad longwave trough. High
temps will get into the upper 30s to maybe low 40s in spots Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoon, but still very cold at night, so melting
of any lingering sleet and ice will be slow. We can expect a black
ice problem each night/morning probably thru the end of the week.

The cold temps thru the week will exacerbate threats of hypothermia
for anyone traveling or still without power. Make sure to check
up on vulnerable loved ones and neighbors, pets, and have plenty
of blankets and warm clothing. Remember to avoid burning fuels
like propane or kerosene indoors as this increases fire risk and
carbon monoxide poisoning.


Key message 3: A reinforcing cold front is expected later next week
with another chance for dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday
night and again Thursday night, which could result in hypothermia
or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

Another strong shortwave will dive out of central Canada on
Wednesday and cross the central and southern Appalachians
Thursday. This will bring a reinforcing arctic cold front thru
the area, dropping temps down further below normal for Thursday
and Friday. Gusty NW winds, especially across the mountains will
likely produce dangerous wind chills again Wednesday night thru
Thursday morning, with Cold Weather Advisory criteria possible
across the mountains. Wind chills east of the mountains may dig
into the single digits to lower teens in spots, which may flirt with
Cold Weather Advisory as well. The latest NBM has even colder wind
chills Thursday night into Friday morning for the entire forecast
area. The models show relatively little moisture with the front,
but a brief shot of NW flow snow showers may occur Wednesday
night. Minor accums in the usual upslope areas may occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Prevailing VFR should persist through the
overnight hours at the TAF sites, with high ceilings above AOA 070
and light NE winds expected (save AVL, which will maintain more of a
NNW wind, variable at times). NE winds are expected to strengthen
to 9-12 kts at most sites later this morning, with gusts up to 21kts
possible in the afternoon. By late afternoon to early evening,
moisture associated with robust low pressure system will begin
filtering into the area. Precip will start as -SN and/or -RA,
followed by a quick transition to PL and/or ZR. This is covered with
PROB30s during this time frame, followed by a transition to
categorical FZRAPL at most sites by late evening. These conditions
will be accompanied by lowering cigs (to MVFR) and increasing
potential for visby restrictions.

Outlook: A major winter storm is expected to continue impacting
the entire terminal forecast area through Sunday, and possibly
into Sunday night.  Significant accumulations of freezing rain and
sleet are likely at all the TAF sites, as well as smaller terminals.
Extended flight restrictions should be expected into Monday, even
after precipitation ends, with VFR unlikely to return until Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      80 1999     17 1940     54 1916      2 1986
   KCLT      75 1890     24 1940     58 1890      6 1940
   KGSP      73 1954     29 1940     57 1949      8 1940



RECORDS FOR 01-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1914      7 1897     52 1916     -2 1986
                                                    1897
   KCLT      79 1944     20 1897     59 1916      5 1986
   KGSP      77 1944     29 1986     55 1957      5 1986



RECORDS FOR 01-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     25 1977     52 1917     -1 1897
                            1897
   KCLT      79 2002     29 2014     59 1957      8 1897
   KGSP      78 2002     27 1897     57 1957      6 1897
                                        1916



RECORDS FOR 01-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     11 1966     55 1950     -7 1966
                                        1914
   KCLT      78 2002     19 1966     59 1914      4 1966
   KGSP      76 1975     20 1966     53 2002     -6 1966

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

$$

ARK/JDL